One of the many people I interviewed for this week’s Theater feature on play licensing and how it affects Chicago theater was Strawdog artistic director Nic Dimond. Strawdog had announced as part of its season a spring 2009 production of Peter Barnes’s Red Noses—as had a much younger company, Hubris Productions. The Barnes play was one of six I counted that were being produced by more than one Chicago company this season, often in overlapping runs, and in a couple of cases both producing companies were under the impression they’d be mounting the play’s Chicago premiere.

Like the other artistic directors I spoke to, Nic diplomatically played down any notion of competition; he figured Strawdog and Hubris would take different approaches to the play and attract different audiences, and didn’t see any need to make a change. Earlier this week, though, Strawdog announced a substitution for another show it had announced: Its February production of Arthur Miller’s All My Sons, to be directed by Kimberly Senior, would be replaced by Curt Columbus’s translation of Chekhov’s The Cherry Orchard. Given the impending Broadway debut of a certain Scientologist in the Miller play, I couldn’t help but wonder if the one had anything to do with the other. Turns out they do.

As Dimond tells it, Strawdog wasn’t given rights to All My Sons because of the potential touring plans of the Broadway production (although he stressed to me that it was his own mistake to announce the show before having a contract in hand, and he hopes to produce it in a future season). This seems to me like another example of the inequity of licensing policies as they’re applied in this city—or in any city that isn’t New York or Los Angeles. The play’s licensing company might allow any number of Chicago companies to put up simultaneous productions of the same show, but any production in New York or L.A. (or, it seems, a production touring out of New York) is afforded playwright approval and a window of exclusivity. It’s hard to avoid the impression that Chicago productions are perceived to matter less.

Read the whole story here.

written by \\ tags: host city

In our very first issue of TOC three years ago, we dubbed Martial Noguier the most underrated chef in the city, and for whatever reason, the one sixtyblue  vet still seems a bit overlooked. Now, Noguier is aiming to change that, and after almost eight years of drawing diners to the westernmost point of Randolph’s restaurant strip, he’s leaving his post for the position of executive chef of Sofitel. "Michael Jordan [one sixtyblue’s owner] is a wonderful person, and one of the reasons I stayed so long," Noguier says. "But it’s now time for me to go." Where he’ll go is the kitchen of Café des Architectes, one of the few hotel restaurants in Chicago that has never quite stuck with locals as a dining destination the likes of NoMI, Avenues or The Ritz Cafe. "But there is this potential there," Noguier insists. "It is a French hotel—and of course I am French so this is perfect—with a comfortable dining room, not too upscale so it’s perfect for me to do what I want to do, which is real, simple French food made with local ingredients. No one is doing that." He goes on to rhapsodize about bringing light and fresh Southern French food to the city ("like you would see in Nice") via dishes like bouillabaisse and roasted rabbit accented with produce and fresh herbs from Green City Market farmers. Noguier’s last day at one sixtyblue will be September 6, and he has only a couple of weeks to find his replacement. His Sofitel gig kicks off October 1, but the excited chef is already looking toward next year with even bigger plans. "There is talk of a restaurant renovation in 2009, and I’m definitely looking forward to making use of Sigale [the other Sofitel dining room currently only used for special events]. But really my hope for this is to do what I do best, work with local farmers to create great food and something that Chicago will love."

one sixtyblue. 1400 W Randolph St between Ada St and Ogden Ave (312-850-0303). El: Green, Pink to Ashland. Bus: 9, 20 (24hrs), 65. Dinner (closed Sun). Average main course: $25.

Café des Architectes. 20 E Chestnut St at Wabash Ave (312-324-4000). El: Red to Chicago. Bus: 36, 66 (24hrs), 143, 144, 145, 146, 147, 148, 151 (24hrs). Breakfast, brunch (Sat, Sun), lunch, dinner. Average main course: $24.

written by \\ tags: host city

Yesterday’s Grand Junction (CO) Daily Sentinel reports that Grand Junction, Colorado City Council will consider a resolution at their meeting tomorrow under which the city clerk will randomly select spiritual leaders from local congregations to offer an invocation “according to the dictates of his/her own conscience.” However, the person delivering the prayer will be asked that the invocation “not be exploited to proselytize a particular religious tenet or belief or aggressively advocate a specific religious creed or derogate another religious faith or to disparage any other faith of belief.” Also the agenda for the meeting will state that the invocation is intended to “solemnize” the meeting, not to establish a particular religion, and will indicate that attendees may sit, stand or leave the room during the prayer. A local group, Western Colorado Atheists and Free Thinkers, has asked Council to eliminate the invocation and replace it with a moment of silence.

Meanwhile yesterday’s Grand Junction Daily Sentinel reports that a Mesa County Commissioner (the county in which Grand Junction is located) is taking a different view. Under a policy adopted in 2005, one of the three Commissioners opens the County Commission meeting with a prayer which those in attendance are told they may join if they wish. Commissioner Janet Rowland yesterday ended her prayer “in the name of Jesus”. Challenged at the meeting by a local resident, Rowland, who is in the midst of a primary contest for Republican nomination for a Commission seat, said: “I don’t mind losing the election, but I do mind losing my faith or my belief in the Constitution.”

written by \\ tags: host city

Washington D.C.’s Third Church of Christ, Scientist, yesterday filed a federal lawsuit challenging a decision by the city’s Historic Preservation Review Board (see prior posting) that prevents the church from tearing down its current building in order to construct a new church structure. Today’s Washington Post reports the lawsuit alleges that designating the church an historic landmark violates its First Amendment free exercise rights as well as its rights under the Religious Land Use and Institutionalized Persons Act. Today’s Washington Times reports on reactions to the lawsuit from both sides.

written by \\ tags: host city

I thought I’d do a bit of a reintroduction to start off IComLeavWe. For the rest of the week I’ll be finishing off my posts about Australia that were started back in my attempt at NaComLeavMo. I thought I’d theme my posts for the week of IComLeavWe, starting with Australia this week and I’ll do a big week on cupcakes with lots of photos next month.

So far in the Australia posts I’ve talked about -
Post One - A size comparison of the US & Australia. The Western coast of Australia - WA (Perth), NT (Darwin) and SA (Adelaide).
Post Two - Another short comparison on size, population, settlement and independence. The Southern most state of Australia - Tasmania (Hobart).
Post Three - The Capital of Australia - Canberra in the ACT.

To come -
Queensland and it’s capital Brisbane
New South Wales and it’s capital Sydney
Victoria, the state I live in.
Melbourne the city I love.
The suburbs of Melbourne and where we live now.
All your questions about Australia.

But for today, here’s a bit of a re-introduction and some background info that’s not featured on this blog. Warning - it’s huge.

This is not the first blog I’ve had and it’s entirely possible you’ve read the blogs that came before this. I started blogging not long after we were married and but had to move due to a particularly crazy troll who we knew in real life which culminated in my in-laws reading my blog as well as quite a few other ‘real life’ people that we know. From there I moved to a passworded blog which was fine but I wanted to step back into the community again. So now I’m here with a new blog and some new aliases.

So I’m Sassy and I’m married to T-Rex. I’m 24, he’s 27. We were married in early 2005 but had stopped using contraception some time before that. We wanted to have kids straight away and knew it would probably take 3-6 months to conceive. I had studied some midwifery at Uni before deciding it wasn’t the career for me, so I had some knowledge of what to expect. Needless to say, things did not go as planned.

Before we were married I had three early losses. We weren’t trying, we were just slack with contraception. I was between 18 and 21 and they all happened at very stressful times. The first two during exams - high school and then uni, the third during a crazy time at work after a good friend had died of cancer. I’d like to say that those losses stayed with me and I think of them often, but I don’t. I very rarely think of them and acknowledge them even less often than that. I didn’t think much about them until we really started trying. To be honest, I’m glad I didn’t have any of those babies. We really weren’t in the position to give them the life they deserved and we weren’t ready to be parents.

We were considered very young to be getting married. I was 21, he was 24. We’d been together for five years and had been living together for three of those. We were happy but were ridiculously eager to have a baby. Just one. We’ve always just wanted one and figured we’d find space in our one bedroom apartment in the city. I started temping and charting but never had anything resembling a peak. I tried OPK’s but never had a test line darker than a control. We tried for many many months, well over a year in the end, before seeing a doctor. We moved from the city to a three bedroom unit in the suburbs. Then in November 2005, we finally made it in to meet Dr Retard who told us that sometimes it can take years to conceive and that it wasn’t something she thought we should be concerned about. I said I was concerned about PCOS and she told me she doubted that I had it as I didn’t have excessive facial hair, but she sent me for an ultrasound and some blood tests.

As soon as one of my ovaries was on the screen it was obvious that the doctor was wrong. My ovaries looked like bubble wrap and the ultrasound tech didn’t hesitate to tell me I had PCOS. Straight away we started talking about adoption, but thought we would try some treatment first. That was easier said than done. From there I saw Dr Midget who admitted he knew nothing about PCOS and sent me The Clinic. Over 5 ridiculously hard to get appointments at The Clinic we managed to get some blood tests, a semen analysis and a HSG done, all with fairly bland results and no ideas as to any kind of treatment. I found a brilliant dietitian who specialises in PCOS who was the first person to give me pamphlets and a real explanation of PCOS. She also recommended that I try Metformin and gave me an eating plan that I made into a website (email me if you want the link).

Then there was the troll and I moved to a passworded blog. I started using Fertility Friend in the hope to find some evidence that I was ovulating but there was none. We celebrated our first wedding anniversary and read on as almost all of the infertility bloggers I knew took home their much longed for babies. We went to an information session on foster care and adoption and decided that we were interested in both. We started the process to be approved as foster carers, starting with a home visit in May 2006 and in the same month met Dr Nod at The Clinic who told us it was very unlikely that we’ll ever conceive by ourselves. He referred us to The Hospital and told us what to expect in the way of treatment - Clomid and Metformin.

We started our foster care training and started getting excited about it. We were also looking forward to actually starting treatment and went along to a ‘having a baby’ information session at a private hospital near us. We started talking about baby names again, and I noticed for the first time that my hands were sore. My cousins popped out some kids but it wasn’t upsetting. And then we had our first appointment at The Hospital where Dr Atrocious told us that he was sure we would conceive (after 2 years) without any help, that he wasn’t concerned about the PCOS and thought we should use contraception while doing foster care as he couldn’t understand why we’d want to do it and told me I definitely wouldn’t want to be foster carer while pregnant. He didn’t know what to do with us as he said we didn’t need any treatment, but he did agree to write a prescription for Metformin. Six weeks later in November 2006 I had an appointment with Dr Positive at The Hospital who was much more helpful and suggested I stick with the Metformin for a few months and follow it with a teeny bit of Clomid and go from there.

That’s where we were when we moved house again, into where we are now. We started our final lot of foster care assessments and had another appointment at The Hospital where it was noted I’d lost 10kg on Metformin and I was handed a prescription for Clomid. On day 16 of my second Clomid cycle I’d put on 5kg in two days and spent the night in hospital as I was so bloated my lungs were being crushed and I couldn’t take even half a normal breath. They put me on a drip and we settled in for the night as I couldn’t get an ultrasound for OHSS until 9am. By 9am I was breathing okay again and the only thing the ultrasound showed was a follicle on each ovary measuring at 11mm. That’s when we met with Dr Atrocious again who now felt I wasn’t ovulating at all with or without Clomid but suggested I try the same teeny tiny dose every second month to prevent me from having the same reaction again. On day 13 of my next Clomid cycle I had an ultrasound to check how things were going and the results were less than stunning, that’s when I was referred to The Private Clinic.

Once at The Private Clinic we had an appointment with the doctor who’s the director of the clinic and we spent an hour talking about our situation. He wasn’t surprised about the reaction I’d had to the clomid and said that he wasn’t a fan of it. He also didn’t think I was ovulating at all by myself. In terms of treatment, IUI would be pointless without me ovulating and because of my reaction to the clomid he was concerned about giving me any other stimulants. His suggestion was a laproscopy with ovarian drilling. The success rates are pathetic but that’s our only option. Following that we would go straight to IUI but still wouldn’t be able to stim. The drilling could also compromise my ovaries, not that that’s much of a concern at this point. It would also be able to find out and remove any endometriosis I have. We thought about this for months and in the mean time we were approved as foster carers.

In August 2007 we were matched with two kids for relief care that started as one kid one weekend a month. Then it was two kids two weekends a month. And after just one weekend things fell apart and we had Miss J full time for a month. After that we continued to provide respite for Miss J first every weekend and then every second weekend. It was at this time that we decided to move on to adoption. Living with Miss J answered quite a few questions that we had about caring for a non-biological child and it was reassuring to see how easy it was for us and our families to fit her into our lives.

In November we had a terrible weekend with Miss J who was clearly not coping with day to day life and was very numb and shut down. A week later she was abandoned by her parent and placed in full time care with other carers. It was horrible. We didn’t get to say goodbye and haven’t seen her since. We were really disappointed with many things that happened with Miss J and earlier this year we decided that we didn’t want to be put in the same position again and we resigned as foster carers.

This year we also attended an information session on the domestic adoption program in our state and have decided that’s the way we want to go. We’ve just recently had our final meeting with our foster care agency which we were waiting on before we go any further with the adoption. So that’s where we are right now. We’ll be sending in our first lot of papers this week. We’re not exactly confident about our chances of adopting. I have arthritis caused by meningitis when I was a baby that may have also cooked my eggs and could be part of the reason I’m infertile. We’re also both overweight and there are no guidelines in terms of what is required of us in terms of our health which means it’s up to the social workers were assigned, not exactly reassuring.

Apart from that, I haven’t worked since we first started ttc. I do cupcakes and blog design occasionally and I’m considering getting more serious with the cupcakes. (That one up the top isn’t one of mine though. I’m going to change it to one that is soon.) T-Rex is an Infrastructure Manager for a large finance company. We live in an estate out in the country with two cats and a dog, about an hour from the city in an area full of families. I’ve been taking cake decorating classes which have been heaps of fun and T-Rex keeps busy on weekends as a volunteer fireman.

So that’s our story, so far.

written by \\ tags: host city

Yendi Phillips won the Miss Jamaica World 2007 title and was placed in the top 15 at the Miss World finals. Earlier this year she was given the chance to become the next Digicel Rising Stars host taking over from long-time host Denise Hunt. Other persons who were vying for the spot are TV personalities Renée Garel (Lady Renée ), Miss Jamaica 2006 winner, Sara Lawrence, and contestant Sanique Vacianna.

Ramona Hudson, Age: 25
I am going to give you my honest opinion Yendi Phillips is god damn boring as hell, she needs to be her self and stop trying to be what she can’t and that is Denise Hunt. I don’t know why Denise is no longer the host but they need to get her back on board.

Arlondo Becket, Age: 29
I love Yendi Phillips but I don’t think she’s doing a good job as the Rising Stars host, I am not a professional in tv land but I can definitely identify that she’s a weak host. Maybe they decided to used her because of her beauty but to be the Rising Stars host you have to be ghetto when it’s time to be ghetto especially when they are doing to search for talents on the road.

DJ Craig, Age: 21
I am not going to put all the blame on poor little Yendi because both she and the competition boring. The competition lacks talent from both the contestants and Yendi Phillips. The best Rising Stars season was when Christopher Martin won and I don’t think it’s going to get no better than that for now.

Sedia McDonald, Age: 31
This is so funny because I knew a lot of persons who used to player hate on Denise about her dressing and now that she’s gone them same one saying that she was a better host. But, hey this is Yendi’s first time hosting a major show so let us give her until next season by then she might improve.

Yvonne Williamson, Age: 27
Denise Hunt was a bit boring too when the competition started in its first year but by time the search was done she was way head of her mistakes. You could definitely see a difference. The only problem Denise had after that was dressing - sometimes you have to wonder who is dressing her. Yendi definitely needs more training. I think she would be perfect for a kiddies show.

Comments/Opinion Disclaimer: Views expressed are NOT necessarily those of OutAroad.com

written by \\ tags: host city

by Bill Bronchick

So often beginning investors focus on real estate investing techniques that they lose sight of the important issue - is this a good deal? Learning to recognize a good deal takes research, education and, above all, experience. Here’s a good formula to determine whether a potential real estate purchase is a deal. It’s a simple acronym called “C.L.E.A.R.”

Cash Flow

Ask yourself, will this property cash flow? Well, that depends on a lot of factors, such as the strength of the local rental market, the interest rate on the financing and how much of a down payment you make. Also, it depends on whether it is a single family or multi-family dwelling. All of these factors considered, ask yourself, “will this provide income for me?” Also, ask the question, “how will this property cash flow compared to other potential properties?” For example, a $150,000 house that rents for $1,000/month has a better income potential than a $300,000 house that rents for $1,600/month. A four-unit building that costs $400,000 may bring in $3,000/month in the same neighborhood.

Now, of course, whether the property will provide income to you begs the question of whether income is important to you. Is it? Do you earn other income? Do you need more income now, or is future equity growth more important? There’s no right answer to these questions, but are all factors to consider when looking at a potential purchase.

Leverage

Leverage is important in investing because the less cash you put down on each property, the more properties you can buy. If the properties go up in value, your rate of return goes up exponentially. However, if the properties go down in value and you have a lot of debt on the property, this can result in negative cash flow (see above). Since real estate is generally cyclical, negative cash flow is only a short term problem and can be handled if you have other income or a cash reserve to handle the negative. “Nothing down” investing is very attractive for the high-leverage investor, but should be approached with caution. If you are a long-term player, leverage will generally work in your favor if the markets in which you invest appreciate in the long run and your income from the properties can pay for most of the monthly debt service.

Equity

Is the property you are purchasing have equity? Equity can take a number of forms, such as:

* A discounted price

* A potential fixer upper

* A rezoning opportunity

* A poorly managed property

* A foreclosure

There are many ways to create equity, but buying into equity is your best bet. Find a motivated seller that wants out of his property and is willing to give up his or equity for less than full value. Or, buy a property that needs work that can be done for 50 cents on the dollar or less. In other words, if the property needs $10,000 in work, make sure you get a $20,000 discount on the price or better.

Appreciation

Buying in the right neighborhoods and in the right stage of a real estate cycle will result in appreciation and profit. However, timing a real estate cycle is difficult and can be very speculative. If you buy properties without equity or cash flow solely for short-term appreciation, you are engaging in a very risky investment. Buying for moderate long-term (10 to 20 years) appreciation is safer and easier. Look at long-term neighborhood and city-wide trends to pick areas that will hold their values and grow at an average 5 to 7% pace. Combine this tactic with reasonable cash flow and buying into equity and you will be a smart investor.

Risk

Risk is a consideration that too few investors consider. Ask yourself, “what if my assumptions are wrong?” In other words, do you have a “plan B”? If you bought for appreciation and the property did not appreciate in value, can you rent for positive cash flow? If you buy with a adjustable rate loan and the rates go up, will this put you out of business? If you have a few vacancies, can you handle the negative cash flow, or will it break the bank for you? Expect the best, but prepare for the worst.

Remember, whenever you look at a property to purchase, think “CLEAR”.

William Bronchick, CEO of Legalwiz Publications, is a Nationally-known attorney, author, entrepreneur and speaker. Mr. Bronchick has been practicing law and real estate since 1990, having been involved in over 600 transactions. He has appeared as a guest on numerous radio and television talk shows including CNBC Power Lunch. He has been featured in Who’s Who in American Business, Money Magazine, the Los Angeles Times and the Denver Business Journal. William Bronchick has served as President of the Colorado Association of Real Estate Investors since 1996.

**********************************************************************************

The Ultimate Foreclosure Secret has been Revealed!

Short Sale investors are gobbling up properties at HUGE DISCOUNTS all across the nation. Banks are practically giving away houses to anyone who asks.

Imagine acquiring real estate with no credit checks, or income verifications, and it’s virtually Risk Free.

In the next few minutes, I will be sharing with you one of the most exciting and rewarding ways to discount real estate and teach you how to generate huge returns using little to no money of your own Guaranteed! Click Here!

written by \\ tags: host city

by Peter Schiff
President and Chief Global Strategist, Euro Pacific Capital

The mammoth government bailouts of failing home lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have sparked widespread relief that the worst-case economic scenario has apparently been avoided. Treasury Secretary Paulson, the primary engineer of the avalanche of government guarantees, has even been hailed as the “Hero of Capitalism.” However when the history of the rise and fall of the United States of America is finally written, the “housing bailout bill” will be shown to be a seminal event. If the road to hell is paved with good intentions, we just laid down a mile of asphalt.

Markets have responded the way they always do to news that seems positive. Gold is down and the U.S. Dollar and American stocks have staged minor relief rallies. But as the harsh realities of these “bailouts” become clear, in the form of hundreds of billions of new government debt likely to be monetized, the good feelings will vanish and the panic selling will begin. Soon investors will realize that the government has just thrown gasoline on the wild fire it set in the first place. The economy will be torched and what is left of our free market economy burned to a cinder.

Undoubtedly the bailouts will come with a huge price tag, but the costs will not necessarily be borne only by taxpayers. All workers and savers, whose well-being depends on the value of the dollar, will lose as the dollar is debased. This initial bailout bill is merely the camel’s nose under the tent. Capitalism can’t work when individuals are not held accountable for their actions. When irresponsible behavior is rewarded and responsible behavior punished, the moral hazards will lead to financial ruin. If Americans know that they can borrow without consequences, and if those who resist such temptation get stuck with the bills, our market economy will fall apart.

Fortunately, at the very time that we need to get rid of any remaining dollars still in our possession, not only is there a bounce in the dollar, but many of my favorite foreign stocks are on sale as well. The world is over-reacting to our problems, almost to the extent that we are under-reacting. Investors are over-estimating the global consequences of the collapse of the American consumer. I have long argued that American consumers have been functioning as global economic parasites, feeding off the productivity of the rest of the world. When the parasite is removed, the host will thrive. While those who have loaned us money will finally recognize their losses, the truth (belatedly recognized) will set them free. Once they move on, the world will enjoy enhanced growth, as it reclaims the savings, resources and consumer goods previously sent to America on credit.

The recent weakness in global stocks should be seen as a blessing not a curse. Low prices are an opportunity to capture more non-dollar assets, and lock up an even greater foreign currency denominated dividend stream. Given the recklessness of the current U.S. economic policy, the greenback will likely lose substantial value in the very near future. Though I can understand why many clients may view the recent declines as casting doubt on my overall strategy, I am convinced as ever that it will ultimately be vindicated. In my book Crash Proof I wrote that the initial decline in U.S. stocks might temporarily bring down foreign markets, but that such drops were not to be feared but embraced. Thus far I have seen nothing to alter that forecast. In the end, the race is won at the finish line, not at the starting block or at some arbitrary point in between.

Often doing the right thing flies in the face of conventional wisdom. Just remember the very ‘experts” who are assuring us that the government has saved the day, were those who assured us all was well. The same geniuses who are convinced the subprime problem has been solved are those who devised the loans in the first place. The key is to have the courage to stand by your convictions and not be swayed by the mob. If you have not yet done so, watch these YouTube clips of my presentation back in 2006 at the Western Regional Mortgage Bankers Conference. Click here for the links. The same people who thought my forecasts were nuts then are the ones who now insist that my current forecast is just as crazy.

Peter Schiff is the President, Founder and Chief Global Strategist for Euro Pacific Capital. He is widely acknowledged as a expert in international markets, and in global economic strategy. He is a speaker at all the major investment conferences. He is regularly featured on CNBC and Bloomerg TV , and often quoted in the Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, New York Times, the Financial Times, Investors Business Daily, and many others.

*******************************************************************************

Have you ever found yourself wishing you had more free time and disposable income?

Are you interested in the Forex marketplace, but don’t want to waste thousands and thousands of dollars on seminars that might not have the crucial information you need?

Maybe you tried to enter the Forex marketplace, but got burned by having to pay for trading signals that caused you to lose money?

Wouldn’t it be great if you could find a simple Forex trading system that would allow you to make consistent profits and deliver cold hard cash on a regular basis?

Do you want to find a way to make money with the Forex marketplace – without wasting hours looking at complex, confusing charts?

If you answered yes to any of these questions, I want to tell you my important story.

Confident Millionaire will help you overcome the fears that have been holding you back from financial success by arming you with insight, simple and effective wealth-building strategies, and the emotional courage to take the big steps that are guaranteed to lead you to your dreams. Once you master your fear, you’ll find all the proven wealth-building advice you need to succeed.

written by \\ tags: host city

by Alexander Green
Chairman, Investment U
Investment Director, The Oxford Club

Nearly two months ago I wrote a column asking “Is the Oil Market Becoming the ‘Mother of All Bubbles?’” Personally, I don’t think it is. Even though oil has since hit several new records, some bubbles are just hard to beat.

In 1720, an English firm - the South Sea Company - was granted a monopoly to trade with South America under a treaty with Spain. The primary product? West Africans sold into slavery. This seemed like such a good deal - even though the company made little actual profit - that shares rose more than ten-fold in a single year.

When Sir Isaac Newton was asked how high South Sea stock might eventually go, he replied, “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people.” Good answer. The stock soon collapsed and thousands of investors were wiped out.

With this classic bubble in mind, let’s take a dispassionate look at today’s oil market.

Oil Demand Down 2% in the U.S.

Oil demand in the United States is actually down 2% so far this year. According to the federal Energy Information Administration, high oil prices and a weak economy will knock down U.S. oil consumption by 90,000 barrels a day in 2008.

The situation is similar in other parts of the world:

* The International Energy Agency (IEA), the Paris-based energy watchdog of the world’s richest nations, recently lowered its forecast for world oil demand growth by 460,000 barrels a day.

* The IEA also sees supply from outside OPEC growing by 815,000 barrels a day, the strongest growth since 2004.

* And this was before Saudi Arabia’s recent promise to boost production by a million barrels a day.

Yet despite these decidedly bearish developments for the oil market, the price is up 51% since January 1 - and more than 700% since trading at $17.45 a barrel in November 2001.

A Justified Price Rise in the Oil Market

Some will argue that this price rise within the oil market is fully justified. After all, most of the world’s major oil deposits have already been discovered. The low-hanging fruit has been picked. The remaining oil supplies are tough to get at - and expensive to recover.

Meanwhile, the world’s demand for oil keeps rising as more people around the globe - especially in emerging giants like India and China - pound the table for “more juice.”

This story is essentially correct. But it is just a story - and a thoroughly well-known one at that. It is not a rationale to buy crude oil today.

Especially since high prices always sow the seeds of their own collapse. Consumers start to conserve. Producers search for oil that was once too costly to extract. Supply and demand come back into balance.

According to Stephen Schork, President of Schork Group, a firm that advises the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, “There’s nothing different between this mania, the dot-com mania, the real estate mania, the Dow Jones mania of the 1920s, the South Sea bubble and the Dutch tulip-bulb mania. History repeats itself over and over and over again.”

Speculative Fear Grips The Oil Market

Yes, speculative fever has gripped the oil market. This bull is likely to end up just like those in the ring in Mexico City. Current oil prices are simply unsustainable.

That doesn’t mean that oil is going to plunge today or tomorrow. Indeed, it could keep rising for quite some time. After all, you cannot make a rational judgment about when irrational behavior will end.

But oil prices will come back down. And that will be positive for both the economy and the stock market.

If you have big profits in your energy stocks, consider paring back. Or at least running your trailing stops closer to better protect your profits.

Charting the Oil Market Bubble

If you’re skeptical, take a look at the table below that charts the oil market bubble alongside the housing and Internet bubbles. The parallels are uncanny.

{Source Bespoke Investment Group, LLC}

Of course, history never repeats itself exactly the same way. We may not be at the exact inflection point.

But ask yourself this: If Isaac Newton were around, would he be buying into the oil market today?

Think about that. And govern yourself accordingly.

Good investing,

Alex

*****************************************************************************

Would you like to have the almost “magical” ability to flood your business with paying customers any time you want?

Does the idea of swamping your bank account with a torrent of money excite you?

Do you want to be in the enviable position of always having enough money (plus the free time to enjoy it)… no matter how bad the economy gets?

If so, you’re in for the ride of your life here! Keep reading…

written by \\ tags: host city

Picture: BBC

The skys the limit

Britain From Above, showing Sunday August 17th on BBC 1 at 9:00pm

Andrew Marr experiences his biggest adventure yet, plummeting from an airplane in his first-ever sky-dive (pictured) - all in the name of exploring the nation from above. During the course of his travels, Marr discovers how some of the greenest, most natural-seeming landscapes across the country have actually been shaped by human hands.

This week’s journey begins 10,000ft above ground in East Anglia, where a familiar patchwork quilt of fields lies below. This is the breadbasket of the nation, producing more than a quarter of the country’s wheat and barley. But it’s not as natural as it looks. Here, farmers are harnessing military technology to help them manage their farms. Spy planes, normally used to snap reconnaissance photos of Iraq or Afghanistan, have been converted to crop-cams. Using GPS, the computer-controlled crop-cam flies over farmland, recording images as it goes.

Flying over Savernake Forest near Swindon, experts are employing modern technology to see beneath the forest canopy and reveal the nation’s ancient history below. A plane-mounted laser flies over the forest. This laser - known as LiDAR - scans the ground, firing 33,000 times each second. The recorded impulses produce a model of the ground beneath the trees, revealing a temple-complex dating back to the Iron Age.

Finally, Andrew explores the nation’s National Parks, witnessing them as a host to wildlife, countless leisure activities and sheep. He sees their fight against destruction and their role as a testing ground for fast jet aircraft like the Eurofighter.

View the full review

Get a reminder when Britain From Above starts…

written by \\ tags: host city